YouGov voting intention for London
The Evening Standard has London voting intention figures based on the aggregated data from the YouGov daily polling over the last week or so (I should add that the raw data is aggregated as if it were all one poll, and then collectively weighted to London targets - so it is the equivalent of doing a London poll, just with the sample invited in lots of little chunks rather than one big go).
The topline figures are CON 39%, LAB 35%, LDEM 17%. I'm not sure what figures Joe Murphy is thinking of when he says the lead has halved in six months - at first glance I can't find any London polling from last summer/autumn - but a YouGov poll in April 2009 showed a Conservative lead of 12 points, so it has dropped by 8 points since then. YouGov national polls were showing a Conservative lead of 18 points at the time, so if anything thing have narrowed slightly less in London than elsewhere.
The four point lead represents a swing of 5.5%, so slightly more than the swing suggested by YouGov's national polls. On a uniform swing the Conservatives would gain 8 seats from Labour and 3 seats from the Lib Dems (depending on the notional figures you use - on Rallings and Thrasher Poplar and Limehouse would also go).
