YouGov Tory lead and Survation Heywood & Middleton poll

The Sun has two interesting polls tonight. Firstly the daily YouGov poll tonight has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%. The fieldwork was conducted between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon, so was entirely after David Cameron speech, but largely before this morning's newspaper coverage of it. Other companies like Ashcroft, ICM and MORI have popped out the occasional small Tory lead over the last year, but this is the first one that YouGov have shown since before the Omnishambles budget in 2012. Usual caveats apply, it is just one poll and conducted when David Cameron was getting some very good publicity, time will tell if it sticks.

Secondly the Sun have a Survation by-election poll in Heywood and Middleton. Voting intentions with changes from the 2010 result are CON 13%(-14), LAB 50%(+10), LDEM 4%(-19), UKIP 31%(+28) - it suggests a huge surge for UKIP into second place, but with a nineteen percent lead for Labour they should still hold the seat comfortably.