YouGov show Labour 13 points ahead

I'm out tonight, so this post is written in advance, but tonight's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 45%, LDEM 8% and Others 16% (UKIP are on 7%). A thirteen point Labour lead is the largest any pollster has shown since the election-that-never-was in 2007 and the largest YouGov have shown since they started regular polling in 2002.

Normal caveats apply of course, this week so far we've had YouGov poll showing Labour leads of between 9 and 11 points (and Populus, TNS and Angus Reid leads of 9,10 and 12), so a thirteen point lead would not be out of line with an underlying picture of a Labour lead of 10-11 points.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management