YouGov show a boost for the Lib Dems
They'll be out of date in half an hour anyway, but for what it is worth there are two new polls tonight from YouGov and TNS BMRB. TNS BMRB have topline figures, with changes from the end of March, of CON 36%(-2), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 22%(+3). YouGov meanwhile have figures of CON 37%(-4), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 22%(+4).
On the face of that they appear to be showing the same - a big jump for the Lib Dems at the expense of the Tories. Look carefully at the dates though. YouGov's poll was conducted yesterday and today, so it is very likely picking up the publicity boost from the Liberal Democrat manifesto launch. Tuesday's manifesto launch for the Conservatives pushed the Tories up to 41% in the YouGov poll the next day, and the Lib Dem launch the next day dropped it straight back down and pushed the Lib Dems up to their highest rating from YouGov since Nick Clegg's conference speech last autumn.
In contrast TNS-BMRB was conducted in the week leading up to the 13th April (Tuesday) - a period when other pollsters were not showing a Lib Dem jump, and certainly too early to be reflecting any Lib Dem boost from their manifesto. With all the other companies conducting online or telephone polls, the time that face-to-face polling takes really does render TNS-BMRB a bit behind the news agenda (a shame in my view, since I think a wide variety of methods is a positive in opinion polling).
Anyway, I expect the Lib Dem boost in YouGov's poll would have been largely transitory... if it weren't for tonight's debate. More on that later shortly though.
