YouGov show 9 point Tory lead

There is a new YouGov poll in the Sun tomorrow. I haven't seen the full details of it yet, only the topline figures on Sky News, but they are CON 40%(nc), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 17%(nc), so virtually no change from the YouGov poll between Christmas and New Year.

I haven't seen what the dates of the fieldwork are, though almost by definition most of it would have occured before today's leadership fuss, and even many of those who completed the poll after the Hoon-Hewitt letter hit the news wouldn't have been aware of it.

Sky are also quoting a question on whether Labour changing their leader would change people's vote - it's one of those horrible "more likely", "less likely" and "make no difference" questions which regular readers will know all my concerns about. Apparently 5% more people said it would make them more likely to vote Labour than said it would make them less likely to vote Labour, but we really need to see the proper tables so we can see how that breaks down amongst different party supporters.

There may be other questions too, but we'll see when the proper report emerges.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management