YouGov show 7 point Labour lead

Tonight's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 43%, LDEM 9%. This is the biggest lead YouGov have shown for Labour so far this Parliament, and comes shortly after the ComRes poll earlier this week that showed an 8 point lead and results in YouGov's polling on attitudes to cuts that suggest public opinion is turning increasingly against them.

The one caveat I would add is that don't be too keen to look at the polls showing exciting results and ignore the dull ones. The exciting ones are no more likely to be correct - in fact, it's pretty much the opposite! The main benefit of daily polls is that we have a constant flow of data that should allow us to look past the outliers and see the underlying picture, so while this seven point lead will get lots of attention, don't forget that yesterday's poll showed a Labour lead of just one point. Both would be in line with an underlying Labour lead of 3 or 4 points, which is what it showed the day before that. Alternatively, public opinion could be on the move.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management