YouGov poll of Wales

ITV Wales have a new YouGov poll of voting intentions in Wales. Topline figures are CON 27%(+4), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 23%(-6), PC 10%(+1). Changes are from this poll at the height of the Lib Dem surge, hence the large falling back. Fieldwork was done yesterday and today.

This works out as a swing of 6.7% from Labour to the Conservatives in Wales, larger than in most GB polls. If repeated at the general election on Thursday then on a uniform swing across Wales the Conservatives would gain four seats (Cardiff North, Vale of Glamorgan, Aberconwy and Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire) and Plaid Cymru would gain two (Ynys Mon and Arfon). Labour would be down 6 and the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 4.

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