YouGov Daily Poll - 39/34/16

YouGov's daily poll has topline figures of CON 39%(+1), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 16%(-1). The lead remains at 5 points, but both the main parties have increased with the Lib Dems down to 16 points again. As I said at the weekend while writing about ICM's poll, this is often a difficult time for the Liberal Democrats as the media concentrate on the horse race between the Conservatives and Labour in the pre-election period. Once the formal campaign guarantees them a higher level of media coverage I'd expect them to recover.

We are still awaiting a Populus poll of marginal seats. It appears the vote shares are 38/38, but until we know which seats were polled and what swing it represents that's pretty meaningless.