YouGov Daily poll - 38/33/16

Tonight's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 38%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 16%(-1).

None of the changes are significant, and I suspect the real picture is that we've been a lead of 6 points or so for the last week and a bit, with the variations just being normal random sample error. I expect in time there will be major news stories that do have big short term effects upon the polls (or perhaps not, one of the fascinating things daily polls will tell us is more about the short term impact of news events upon the polls), but away from that I expect the norm will be polls that are pretty constant, with slight variation from day to day due to normal sampling error.

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