YouGov Daily figures - 36/32/20

Today's YouGov trackers has topline figures of CON 36%(nc), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 20%(nc): absolutely no change from yesterday. Perceptions amongst commentators yesterday seemed to be that it had been rather a bad day for Labour, the Conservatives seemed to be getting good traction with their attack on Unite and Gordon Brown suffered some embarrassment over defence spending. It appears that this has not had any effect.

There will be questions on both issues in the next few days, but I expect the lack of impact is a combination of people who watch politics overestimating just how much attention the public pay to things like who gives money to which party, who says what an inquiry, etc and that both are already "priced into the market". People tend to think politicians are economical with the truth anyway, and the Labour party having links with the Trade Unions is not exactly shocking news.

Meanwhile the Lib Dems seem to be consolidating their conference boost rather well, remaining at 20% compared to the 17% and 18% sort of range YouGov had been showing previously.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management