YouGov and ComRes polls

The other two polls tonight are ComRes and YouGov. ComRes have topline figures, with changes from yesterday, of CON 36%(-1), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 19%(-1). The changes themselves are not significant, but it obviously co-incides with the trend of narrowing leads. The poll was conducted on the 11th and 12th, so would have been mostly prior to people seeing or reading about the Labour manifesto launch.

In contrast to the other polls tonight YouGov show a movement in the other direction. The topline figures are CON 39%(nc), LAB 31%(-2), LDEM 20%(nc). This was conducted yesterday and today, so almost all after Labour's manifesto launch and with no obvious boost. Clearly we have contradictory trends between Populus's poll and YouGov's poll. While the reason for the difference is probably just sample error, we'll have to wait for more polling to tell.

Tomorrow's polling figures will give us the first reaction to the Tory manifesto (or at least, those with a very quick turnaround will). If some of today's narrowing is down to the publicity boost from Labour's launch it may be reversed anyway. After that it'll be straight into the first debate and whatever impact that has upon the election campaign.

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