Why we should be wary of leadership polls
The full tables for ICM's poll on Sunday are now up on their website. Amongst other things ICM asked whether people would even recognise some of the potential leadership challengers if they saw them in the street. While 79% think they would recognise Jack Straw, only 54% would recognise Harriet Harman and 53% David Miliband, and beyond that potential leaders are barely recognisable at all - 29% think they would recognise Alan Johnson, only 9% James Purnell. Those are the respondents who would recognise these people, presumably the proportion of people who recognise them and know something about them is even smaller.
It's worth remembering that in questions about how people would vote with Harriet Harman, David Miliband, etc in charge, the majority of respondents don't actually know anything about that person. At a stretch people might be familiar enough with Jack Straw to take a guess how they might feel towards a Jack Straw premiership (though not necessarily a good guess), but for the rest of them...
