Wednesday round up

D minus 22 Today's polls: YouGov/Sun (13th-14th Apr) CON 41%(+2), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 18%(-2) ComRes/Independent/ITV (12th-13th Apr) CON 35%(-1), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 21%(+2) Harris/Metro (8th-13th Apr) CON 36%(-1), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 23%(+1)

Three new polls tonight, and still showing a mixed picture. ComRes's rolling poll shows the Conservatives continuing downwards (though Labour are down too). YouGov's poll, completed a day later so having the full effect of the Conservative manifesto launch, has the Tories up at 41% and a lead of 9 points. So far YouGov remain the only company to have shown the Conservatives hitting 40% in April.

There's also a notable difference in the level of support for "others". YouGov have them down into single figures again, and on the basis of their recent polls the minor parties do seem to be getting squeezed. However, ComRes have them up at 15%, and Harris presumably have them somewhere in the region of 14%.

The only other polling tonight is a poll of marginal seats by Crosby/Textor in the Telegraph. We don't really know enough about it to draw any conclusions - the main point of interest in marginal polls is how they compare to national polls, and whether they show the Conservatives outperforming in marginal seats. In this case we have no GB point of comparison, so don't know if it is showing a larger swing or not.

Tomorrow we have the first leader debates. As well as any national polls we get, there will also be at least two instant polls straight afterwards of people who viewed the debates.

UPDATE: The Harris figures last night seem to bear no relation to the actual result in the paper this morning! I've now corrected it.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management