Waiting for the verdict

I've been rushed off my feet for most of the day and have missed the fuss over the ComRes figures. What seems to have happened is that ComRes included a voting intention question on its instant reaction poll straight after the debate yesterday. This had figures of Con 36%, Lab 24% and Lib Dems 35%. In comparison, the same people's voting intention prior to the debate had stood at Con 39%, Lab 27%, Lib Dem 21% - so certainly there was a big swing to the Lib Dems amongst those who ComRes surveyed, and presumably amongst those who watched the debate (though I was concerned to see that ComRes had weighted the sample to match GB demographics and recalled past vote, given that it seems rather unlikely that the audience of the debates was a precise reflection of the GB electorate).

Later on ComRes released a second set of figures - CON 35%, LAB 29%, LDEM 21% - which proports to be an extrapolation to national voting intention. It seems to be based on the assumption that the audience of the debate were equally distributed through the population and that all the rest of the population's opinions are unchanged from the last ComRes poll - both of which are somewhat questionable assumptions.

While there is a natural desire to get the faster possible indication of how the debate has impacted voting intentions, I would recommend waiting until the first full GB poll to draw any conclusions.

There will certainly be the normal YouGov poll later on tonight (thought with the start of the fieldwork delayed until after the debate), and may yet be other polls I'm not aware of. Apprently ITV's Tom Bradby has just said it will show "a quite dramatic movement". I couldn't possibly comment.