Voting intentions in London
The voting intention figures from YouGov's poll for the Evening Standard last week have been released in today's paper. The topline figures, with changes from the last general election, are CON 43%(+11), LAB 37%(-2), LDEM 13%(-9) - equating to a 6.5 point swing to the Conservatives. The poll was done at much the same time as the YouGov poll for the Sunday Times yesterday, which showed an 8 point swing to the Conservatives, so does suggest that the Tories are doing rather less well in London than elsewhere in the country.
On a straight uniform swing this would see the Conservatives winning 37 seats, up from 21 at the moment. Labour would win 34 or 35 seats (depending on Bethnal Green and Bow), down from 44 at the moment, losing Battersea, Brentford & Isleworth, (notionally) Croydon Central, Finchley & Golders Green, Hampstead & Kilburn, Harrow East, Hendon, Poplar & Limehouse, Tooting, Westminster North and Eltham. The poor old Lib Dems would be left with just one seat in London, that of Simon Hughes in Bermondsey. In reality, as we saw in the large PoliticsHome poll of marginals last year, they will likely to somewhat better than that because of tactical and personal votes, but that only goes so far.
