Voting Intention in Wales?

ITV have apparently commissioned an NOP poll on voting intention for the Welsh Assembly election next month that will be released on Thursday, the first and so-far only pointer we so far have of what might happen in the Welsh elections. There has been a glut of polls on voting intention in Scotland, but till now no one has seemed interested in polling in Wales. Anyway, according to a comment on Mike Smithson's blog, the Thursday figures will be CON 24%, LAB 35%, LD 11%, PC 24%.

I have no idea of the source of the figures, how reliable they are, or whether they relate to voting intention in the regional or constituency vote. I guess we will find out on Thursday. For the record, in 2003 the constituency shares of the vote were CON 20%, LAB 40%, LDEM 14%, PC 21% and the regional shares were CON 19%, LAB 37%, LDEM 13%, PC 20%.

UPDATE: Alas, the figure are wrong. We will have to wait till Thursday after all.