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Data Modelling Now Has Tories Winning More Seats Than Reform
Despite polls since the Clacton by-election giving Reform an average lead over the Conservatives of 5 percentage points our default model now shows that on current polling the Conservatives would win 27 seats more than Reform. Labour would win 274 seats, more than double the trailing Tories. The heady days
The Burnham Bounce Has Arrived
More in Common are the first pollster to record a Labour lead in the Burnham era. Polling with fieldwork completed today sees Labour move ahead by 4 points which is the first lead recorded by them since March 2025 and their highest share since November 2024. Post-Makerfield Burnham's
Where Did Keir Go Wrong?
Keiran Pedley writing for Ipsos asks as Keir Starmer prepares to depart Downing Street, ‘how did it come to this?’ How did someone who won such a landslide majority in July 2024 end up being replaced two years later? How did it all go wrong so quickly? Pedley points out
What "Burnham Bounce"? Andy Has Plummeting Double Digit Negative Approval Rating
Amidst much talk of an upcoming "Burnham Bounce" for Labour it is noticeable that his personal ratings have gone down. A YouGov/Times survey – conducted on 24-25 June, following Keir Starmer’s resignation – shows that Andy Burnham has taken a hit to his personal ratings. This latest poll
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