UK voting intention poll from Angus Reid

Angus Reid have released the first in a series of monthly polls they are doing for PoliticalBetting. The topline figures are CON 40%, LAB 23%, LDEM 20%. Obviously there are no changes in party support, since this is their first effort.

Like the other two polls tonight it shows a Conservative lead of 17 points, but beyond that the figures themselves are actually slightly different - the Conservatives and Labour are lower, and the Lib Dems and others are higher.

Until we get a proper look at a the tables and a chance to poke about at the methodology, that's pretty much all we can say. What we know so far is that the poll is conducted using their own internet panel (it lives at SpringBoardUK) like YouGov and Harris. We know is that it is past vote weighted and what their voting intention question is. We don't know what else they weight by, if they do anything with likelihood to vote, or reallocating don't knows, or what the targets for past vote are, or which parties are prompted for in the voting intention question (which could explain the strangely high figure for others!).

I expect things will all be in order, since Andy Morris is a former colleague and knows what he's doing, but for now we'll have to wait and see.