Two weeks to go

Anthony Wells

— 2 min read
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A brief summary of this week's polls before I have some downtime:

YouGov/Sun (17/4) - CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% Opinium/Observer (17/4) - CON 36%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5% YouGov/S Times (18/4) - CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5% YouGov/Sun (19/4) - CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5% Ashcroft (19/4) - CON 34%, LAB 30%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4% Populus (19/4) - CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4% ICM/Guardian (19/4) - CON 34%, LAB 32%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 11%, GRN 5% TNS (20/4) - CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% YouGov/Sun (20/4) - CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5% YouGov/Sun (21/4) - CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5% YouGov/Sun (22/4) - CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% ComRes/ITV/Mail (22/4) - CON 36%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 5% Populus (23/4) - CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% YouGov/Sun (23/4) - CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6% Panelbase (23/4) - CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4% Survation/Mirror (23/4) - CON 33%, LAB 29%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 18%, GRN 4%

The UKPR polling average continues to show a tie - CON 33%(-1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 14%(nc), GRN 5%(nc). Some of the individual pollsters are showing consistent leads for one party or the other (YouGov and Populus, for example, are generally showing small Labour leads, ICM and Ashcroft small Conservative leads) so it's not the case that all the pollsters are showing an exact tie, more than the average of the different companies' house effects is neck and neck.

Other polls

There was one Scottish poll this week - a new YouGov poll that confirmed their previous 24 point lead for the SNP (tabs), there was also a new YouGov poll of London for the Evening Standard with topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 5% (tabs).

There were three constituency polls. Lord Ashcroft released two extra constituency polls with his weekly GB poll, showing the SNP ahead in Edinburgh North and Leith and Edinburgh South. Meanwhile Survation released a new poll of Thanet South, showing Nigel Farage nine points ahead. We should have some more constituency polls from Lord Ashcroft first thing tomorrow morning, including a poll of Rochester and Strood.

Projections

The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc, the Guardian and YouGov are below, all continue to show a hung Parliament, but the models disagree on whether the Tories or Labour will be ahead on seats - Elections Etc, Election Forecast and the Guardian all have the Conservatives with more seats, YouGov and the Guardian have Labour slightly ahead.

Elections Etc - Hung Parliament, CON 286(-6), LAB 263(+3), LD 26(+4), SNP 51(nc), UKIP 4(nc) Election Forecast - Hung Parliament, CON 283(+3), LAB 270(-7), LD 24(-3), SNP 48(+6), UKIP 1(nc) May 2015 - Hung Parliament, CON 270(+2), LAB 273(-3), LD 26(nc), SNP 55(+1), UKIP 3(nc) Guardian - Hung Parliament, CON 273(+4), LAB 268(-3), LD 28(-1), SNP 55(nc), UKIP 4(nc) YouGov Nowcast - Hung Parliament, CON 270(+4), LAB 277(-2), LD 27(nc), SNP 50(nc), UKIP 3(-2)

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