Tory lead steady in latest ComRes poll

ComRes have a new poll in the Independent on Sunday. The topline voting intention with changes from the last ComRes poll are CON 45%(-1), LAB 24%(-1), LDEM 16%(-2) (the drop in support for the main parties, interestingly enough, seems to have benefited the Green party, up on 5%, hich will be interesting if it is reflected in any other polls). The poll was conducted between the 16th and 17th July.

The Tory lead is steady at 21 points, which aside from the Populus poll this month seems to be the wider picture at the moment: no change, with a Tory lead at around about twenty points.

The poll also asked people whether they agreed with the statement "The Labour Party will lose the next election regardless of who leads it". 68% agreed with only 22% disagreeing. This doesn't actually tell us much about what would happen if Labour did change their leader - people are not good at predicting how they would react to hypothetical events, most of the respondents to the poll probably have very little idea who people like - say - James Purnell are, let alone what he would do as PM or how they would react. What it does tell you is quite how many people think Labour have already lost the next election, a lot of people are clearly alreay writing them off.

ComRes also found 74% of people wanted troops withdrawn from Iraq as soon as possible, with 18% disagreeing.