Tories still have an 11 point lead with ICM

A new ICM poll for the Sunday Mirror shows the Conservatives still enjoying a double point lead. The topling figures with changes from last month are CON 42%(-1), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 19%(+1). I can't find any details of the fieldwork dates yet, but it's very likely to have been done after David Cameron's announcements on Tory economic policy on Tuesday.

The trend continues to be against the Conservatives - albeit, the one point shifts in each party's share are not in themselves significant. This poll is, however, likely to be seem as a great relief for the Conservatives simply because the 3 point lead from MORI earlier in the week received so much publicity. This poll doesn't reflect a shift back to the Tories, it reflects ICM's different methodology - they weight their samples by past vote so their sample contains fewer former Labour voters to begin with, and their question wording, weighting and adjustment of don't knows all lead to a higher level of Lib Dem support - which in recent months has been at the expense of Labour.

This should be a good reminder that you need to look at the broad sweep of the polls. The 3 point lead was a single poll, from a single pollster, when other companies' most recent polls were still showing 11 and 13 point leads. You should always look at the big picture, not the most recent poll.