Tories retain an election winning lead with ICM

ICM have a new poll out in the Sunday Telegraph. The topline figures, with changes from the previous ICM poll, are CON 43%(+1), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 18%(-3).

The poll shows no significant change in Labour and Conservative support from the previous ICM poll, conducted a fortnight or so ago for the Guardian. The Liberal Democrats are down, and in hindsight the sudden 4 point Lib Dem boost we saw in that previous poll looks like a rogue; it has not been reflected in any other poll.

While there is no significant change here (ICM only briefly showed the Tory lead falling into single figures in the first place), by being both above the psychologically important points of a double figure lead and a lead that on a uniform swing would give the Conservatives a very solid majority, it will act to give a dampen down the narrative of a Labour recovery, indeed the Sunday Telegraph are reporting it as a "reality check".

The report on the Telegraph website doesn't give the dates of the research, but if it is in line with when ICM normally carry out Sunday Telegraph polls it would have been done on Wednesday and Thursday - in other words, prior to the Glenrothes result and any boost Labour receive from it. If that is the case, then we'll have to wait for later polls to see if there is a "Glenrothes effect" on Labour support.

UPDATE: The poll was conducted on the 5th and 6th of November, Wednesday and Thursday, so was indeed before the Glenrothes result.