Tories remain 17 points ahead with ICM

ICM have a new poll in tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph. The topline figures with changes from about a fortnight ago are CON 42%(-2), LAB 25%(-2), LDEM 21%(+3).

The Conservative lead is unchanged at a landslide winning 17 points, but both the Conservatives and Labour are down, with the Lib Dems up three points to 21%. ICM normally give the Liberal Democrats the highest level of support of all the pollsters anyway, but leaving aside their 23% conference boost this is the highest Lib Dem score from ICM since May.

The 17 point lead does contrast with the more modest leads recorded by YouGov and ComRes, but technically all three party figures are well within each others' margins of error and a lead of 15 points or so. Of course, if it was solely sample error, it would even out over time - we would not see one pollster consistently reporting larger leads than another one. Just recently it has appeared that ICM are consistently showing a larger lead than YouGov, but Populus, who use a very similar method to ICM, are showing a lower lead - so while I'm keeping a careful eye on it, I think it's most likely just normal sample variation.

The Sunday Times also reports that ICM have carried out polling in Stoke on Trent, Blackburn and Leicestershire North West for the Equalities and Human Rights Commision, which shows the BNP at 18% in those areas. There are no figures yet - the report suggests it is not being published for several weeks - but it'll be something to look out for.

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