Tories ahead in Crewe and Nantwich
The Mail on Sunday has an ICM poll conducted in Crewe and Nantwich. Voting intention in the by-election is CON 43%, LAB 39%, LDEM 16%. This compares to the actual result at the last election of CON 33%, LAB 49%, LDEM 19%, and if repeated at the by-election would be a 10 point swing.
By-election polls in the past don't have a particularly good track record. That may actually be because they have been done early in by-election campaigns, when actually voting intentions clearly do change decisively within the couple of weeks during a by-election. Either way, we shouldn't expect this to be a very good prediction of what the final result of Crewe and Nantwich will be.
Does that mean the poll doesn't matter? Not at all. As I've said before, in a by-election in a government held seat a lot of voters will be looking for the party that is best positioned to defeat Labour and punish the government. This poll suggests that party is the Conservatives and that they are alread in a very strong position to win it.
UPDATE: In Iain Dale's report of the figures he says "I am told the by election figures were adjusted downwards to take account of large number of Labour don't knows. If they stayed at home on polling day, the Tories would win by 13 points." I assume that refers to ICM's normal re-allocation of don't knows to account for "a spiral of silence" amongst supporters of an unfashionable party, and the tendency for don't knows who do vote to end up voting for their usual party. For it to change a lead of 13 points into one of 4 points though there must have been a vast proportion of Labour voters telling ICM they didn't know.
