TNS-BMRB - CON 36%, LAB 37%, LDEM 11%

There is a new TNS BMRB voting intention poll out here. Topline figures are CON 36%(+3), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 11% (nc), others 16%. Changes are from their last political monitor a month ago, where they apparently asked voting intention but didn't publish it (or at least, it's not up in the tables on their site).

We haven't seen any voting intention figures for Great Britain for a while (as the successors to System Three, they have been regularly conducting polling in Scotland), while some come have slipped past me, these are the first VI figures from them that I can recall since the election. There is at least one very notable change - prior to the election TNS were using traditional face-to-face polling, the only company to do so since MORI switched their voting intention polls wholly to telephone in 2008. The latest TNS poll has switched instead to online polling.

Clearly we don't have much to benchmark TNS polls against at the moment, but a small Labour lead, a collapse in Liberal Democrat support since the election and a significant increase in support for minor parties since the election all fit very much with the broad picture we're seeing from all the pollsters.

Meanwhile YouGov's daily poll for yesterday showed CON 37%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8% - bang in line with the 4 point Labour lead YouGov's daily polling has been averaging around.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management