Sunday polls - ICM, ComRes and MORI

It's Saturday night, so I'd expect lots of polls for the Sunday newspapers. The first out of the traps are ComRes, ICM and MORI.

ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday has topline figures of CON 34%(-1), LAB 28%(+3), LDEM 29%(+2). This is an increase for Labour, but may well be a reversion to the mean after some rather odd ComRes polls in the week. The previous ComRes polls were their rolling polls for ITV news and, as we discussed at the time, they appeared to have included an extremely Conservative sample from Monday, which produced 9 and 8 point Tory leads that looked rather anomolous at the time.

The second new poll is for ICM for the Sunday Telegraph, and has figures of CON 35%(+2), LAB 26%(-2), LDEM 31%(+1) - so in contrast they have the Conservatives rising and Labour falling. As with ComRes, the Lib Dem boost remains healthy.

Finally there is an Ipsos MORI poll in the News of the World, which has the most surprising result. Their topline figures with changes from the last poll are CON 36%(+4), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 23%(-9), so they have the Lib Dem boost almost entirely unwinding. Ben Page of MORI has has just been on Sky - and hats off to him for giving a responsible and measured account of the poll rather than claiming it shows something spectacular. Ben said they'd checked their figures very carefully, scratched their heads, but they have to publish them... but he did re-iterated that one in twenty polls are rogues. That's about as close as pollsters come to warning that one of their own polls they've just released might be a rogue!

Then again, it might be the start of a trend. We should have more polls to come later tonight (at the very least there will be YouGov in the Sunday Times) so let's see what they say.

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