Some good news for Brown from ComRes

A new ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday has topline voting intention figures of CON 39%(-5), LAB 27%(+2), LDEM 21%(+4). The poll was conducted between the 17th and 18th September, so straight after Nick Clegg's speech, and suggests a healthy conference boost for the Liberal Democrats, this time at the expense of the Conservatives. A twelve point Tory lead is the lowest recorded since May.

The poll also had a series of questions about the Labour leadership which collectively are pretty good news for Gordon Brown. 30% of people think David Miliband would be a better Prime Minister than him - by 47% disagree. Notably, the same question in June found 41% thinking Miliband would be better. A majority of people, 57%, think that the present economic difficulties make this the wrong time for Labour to be thinking of changing leader and, finally, 71% think that there should be a general election if Labour change leader again.

Put all together, this reduction in the Tory lead and question showing a lack of appetite for a change of leader under the present circumstances should bolster Gordon Brown's position... unless, that is, the other polls due out tonight show a different picture. In terms of voting intention I'm expecting a least one other poll from ICM tonight.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management