SNP overtake Labour in Westminster support

A new YouGov poll of Scottish opinion for the Telegraph has, for what is apparently (according to the SNP and the Telegraph) the first time, the sNP ahead of Labour in Westminster voting intentions. The topline voting intention figures are CON 20%, LAB 29%, LDEM 14%, SNP 33%.

We are used to seeing voting intention polls for the Scottish Parliament showing the SNP ahead of Labour, but the SNP tend to do better in Holyrood elections than in Westminster ones. These figures - if repeated at an actual general election - would represent a massive switch in support. On a uniform swing it would produce 31 seats for Labour (down 10), 14 seats for the SNP (up 8), 10 for the Lib Dems (down 1) and 4 for the Conservatives.

Asked about voting intention in a referendum on independence, in a question using the referendum wording, 36% said they would vote yes, 48% no. This is a slight narrowing of the gap since the last time I can find YouGov asking the actual referendum question, back in April 2007.

UPDATE: A coveted gold star award for atrocious media reporting of polls - the Guardian reports a "Blow for Labour as poll gives SNP four-point lead in Glasgow East byelection". No, it doesn't. It's the same poll as this one, and the question asked people across the whole of Scotland who they would like to see win Glasgow East, not people actually in Glasgow East who they would vote for. The Guardian's article is actually correct - it's just the headline that's wholly misleading.

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