SNP leading for Holyrood, but dropping for Westminster
Today's Herald has a new TNS-BMRB poll (TNS-BMRB are, I should add, the rebranded System Three, not some strange newcomers!)
Westminister voting intentions with changes since the previous TNS-BMRB Westminster poll in April are CON 18%(-1), LAB 39%(+3), LDEM 12%(+3), SNP 25%(-7).
There were also Holyrood voting intentions, but the figures are incomplete in the newspaper article. I'm told by a commenters here that the full figures are for the constituency vote, CON 13%(+1), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 11%(nc), SNP 40%(+1). For the regional vote the figures are CON 12%(+2), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 12%(nc), SNP 37%(-2). Changes are from a more recent TNS-BMRB poll in June which didn't have Westminster voting intentions.
The poll shows a significant shift back towards Labour at the Westminster level, but not at Holyrood. The time periods are, of course, slightly different, but even comparing the Holyrood voting intentions with those from April there is a much smaller shift at that level. The contrast between a 14 point Labour lead in Westminster voting intentions and a 18 point SNP lead in Holyrood intentions is startling. I'm no expert on Scottish politics, but to throw out some possible explanations, perhaps it's a positive judgement on both the Westminster and Holyrood governments, or perhaps it a squeeze on the SNP vote at Westminster as Scots move to voting Labour as an anti-Conservative vote.
