Seven Weeks to Go
Here are this week's polls:
Opinium/Observer (12/3) - CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7% YouGov/S Times (13/3) - CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% ComRes/Indy on Sunday (13/3) - CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 4% ICM/Guardian (15/3) - CON 36%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 9%, GRN 4% Populus (15/3) - CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% Ashcroft (15/3) - CON 31%, LAB 29%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8% YouGov/Sun (16/3) - CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7% TNS BMRB (16/3) - CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4% YouGov/Sun (17/3) - CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6% YouGov/Sun (18/3) - CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% YouGov/Sun (19/3) - CON 35%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6% Populus (19/3) - CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 17%, GRN 5%
After a wafer thin Tory lead in the UKPR polling average last week, this week Labour and Conservative are neck-and-neck: CON 33%(nc), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 14%(-1), GRN 6%(nc). The consistent small Labour lead we had for most of the year has vanished, but the Conservatives have not managed to open one of their own.
Scottish and constituency polls
Survation put out a new Scottish poll this week (in fact they put out new - a new one for the Daily Record, and an older one for Unison). Both showed the SNP lead in Scotland holding strong, and no sign of any movement back to Labour. There was also a new batch of Ashcroft polling which I discussed here
Budget Week
This week was the most significant fixed event of the year before the general election. We still have the parties' manifesto launches and (perhaps) a debate or debates of some sort, but the budget was indisputably one of the most important known unknowns that could potentially change public opinion before the election. The commentariat invariably spend the run up to the budget speculating about what rabbits the Chancellor will pull out of the hat to make a major impact on the election - history suggests it very rarely happens. There are examples of government support slumping after bad budgets - one of the biggest shifts in public opinion this Parliament came after the bodged 2012 "omnishambles" budget - but precious few of them of them giving a government a substantial boost.
We are not yet in a position to judge whether or not the 2015 budget had any effect. The initial post-budget polling from YouGov gave it a thumbs up - more people thought it was fair than unfair, more people thought it would make them better off than worse off. Most however thought it made no difference, and even a positive reaction does not automatically lead to any impact on the polls. The two voting intention polls we've seen since the budget do not point to any big shift - YouGov showed the Conservatives up, but Populus showed them down.
Beyond the budget there was another tiptoe forward in the debate debate. The broadcasters are reportedly now offering one seven way debate on ITV, a Paxman grilling of Miliband and Cameron on Channel4/Sky and two Question Time style events on BBC - one for UKIP, the SNP, Plaid and the Greens, one with Miliband, Clegg and Cameron, but separately. Cameron has agreed to the seven way debate, but all else seems unconfirmed. The first event - the Paxman grilling - is pencilled in to take place next Thursday though, so one way or another, decisions will be made next week.
Projections
The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc and the Guardian are below, as well as the new model from the Polling Observatory team. As usual all the models predict a hung Parliament - most have the Tories with marginally more seats than Labour, Polling Observatory have Labour with a 20 seat lead.
Elections Etc - Hung Parliament, CON 284(-1), LAB 278(-1), LD 21(-1), SNP 41(+1), UKIP 3(nc) Election Forecast - Hung Parliament, CON 284(-4), LAB 278(+7), LD 25(-1), SNP 40(-2), UKIP 1(nc) May 2015 - Hung Parliament, CON 277(-4), LAB 268(+5), LD 24(nc), SNP 55(nc), UKIP 3(-1) Guardian - Hung Parliament, CON 277(-2), LAB 268(+3), LD 25(-2), SNP 54(+1), UKIP 4(nc) Polling Observatory - Hung Parliament, CON 265, LAB 285, LDEM 24, SNP 49, UKIP 3
