Scottish YouGov poll

There is a new YouGov poll of Scottish Parliamentary voting intentions tonight, commissioned by the Scottish Greens and YouGov's first Scottish polling since last October. Topline figures are:

Constituency: CON 15%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%, SNP 32% Regional: CON 15%, LAB 40%, LDEM 7%, SNP 26%, GRN 6%

The last Scottish polling we saw was a rather surprising MORI poll earlier this month. Until then Scottish polls had been pretty consistent in showing Labour ahead, often by quite hefty margins. The MORI poll either reflected a remarkable turnaround for the SNP - showing Labour's lead dropping by 11 points in the constituency section since the previous MORI poll - or a rogue poll. The hope was that the next Scottish poll would give us a clue.

Obviously we can't be confident what way the trend is moving with YouGov, since this is the first poll for over three months, but in the constituency section it certainly shows a Labour lead consistent with the other polling prior to MORI's last one. The regional vote shows an even larger lead for Labour - it's unusual to have such a difference between the regional and constituency votes, so that might be a bit of a blip.

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