Rather a big if...

There is a new ComRes poll of Labour councillors in England and Wales out today. This is fair enough in its own terms, a respectable and apparently well conducted poll of Labour councillors, and shows that amongst Labour councillors David Miliband is a more popular choice than his brother for Labour leader. The BBC though has rather overinterpreted it...

"The ComRes poll for Daily Politics suggests the contest would go to the full four rounds of counting, if the results of interviews with 265 councillors in England and Wales were replicated amongst Labour members across the country."

Yes, if the views of Labour councillors in England and Wales were representative of normal Labour party members (including those in Scotland) then indeed it would go to all four rounds, and David Miliband would win. That is, also assuming that members of affiliated trade unions and Labour MPs and MEPs voted the same way too. That is rather a big if though, and there is no particular reason to think Labour councillors are representative of the wider Labour party. It does also assume that none of the campaign since mid-August has had any effect, as the fieldwork is a month old.