Populus/Times - CON 33%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%

Populus's monthly poll for the Times is out, with quite striking results. Topline figures with changes from their pre-conference September poll are CON 33%(-1), LAB 41%(+3), LDEM 8%(-4), Others 17%(+1). An eight point Labour lead is the highest Populus have shown since the election (indeed, it's the highest they've shown since the election-that-never-was in 2007). The Lib Dem score is also strikingly low - we've seen them drop to 8 points in YouGov polls, but it's the lowest from a telephone poll.

I will make my usual caveat about any poll showing a sudden change in support - it could be the start of a trend, it could just be an outlier. The ComRes and YouGov polls we've seen since conference season have not shown any significant move from the Lib Dems towards Labour. The poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday, so it is the first poll conducted since Liam Fox's resignation, but we'll also have YouGov's first "post-Fox" poll later tonight.

The other questions in the poll also found the position shifting towards Labour. Cameron, Osborne & Clegg's lead over Miliband & Balls on being the best economic team fell from 18 points to 13 points, there were also drops in some of the Conservative party's ratings on party image - including a 6 point drop on being "honest and principled", from 36% to 30%.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management