Populus show Tories dropping below 40%
Populus's monthly poll for the Times has topline voting intentions, with changes from last month, of CON 39%(-2), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 17%(+1). It was conducted between the 5th and 7th December. The other questions in the poll suggest similar slight movements away from the Conservatives.
Where ICM and MORI showed a boost for the Tories following the PBR and ComRes showed a collapse in the Tory lead, Populus is somewhere inbetween. The poll shows a drop in Conservative support, but Labour are unchanged and there is an insignificant rise in Lib Dem support. While the Conservatives are below the highly symbolic 40% level and it is the lowest Tory lead from Populus since March, really this isn't a big month-on-month shift back to Labour.
It's tempting, with polls showing things moving in opposite directions, to assume the one is the middle is most likely to be correct. That isn't necessarily true, but when the picture has been confused until now, this would fit nicely with a narrative that the PBR was initially badly received, but now all those hideous newspaper stories about the government taking out monsterous debts and secretly planning to raise VAT to 18% have vanished, it hasn't really damaged the government (it could also be that the Damian Green affair has reflected badly upon the Conservatives - sadly the coverage in the Times doesn't suggest that there were any specific questions about Damian Green).
Then again, its a human failing to assume that things that fit nicely into a narrative are more likely to be true! Hopefully there should be plenty of polls over the next week or so as companies bring them forward to avoid the Christmas period, so hopefully we will soon have a far more complete picture.
