Populus show 10 point Tory lead

Populus's monthly poll for the Times is now out here. The topline figures, with changes from Populus's previous poll in early January, are CON 40%(-1), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 20%(+1). The poll was conducted between the 5th and 7th of February, so after news that 3 Labour MPs and one Tory peer were to face criminal charges.

The changes are again only small, but once again in line with the trend of a slight drift towards Labour. Compared to other recent polls, the Tory lead is still in double figures (albeit barely), and has not fallen below 40%. In itself that is probably not significant - if Tory support has fallen into the high thirties as recent polls have suggested, we would still expect random chance to occassionally spit out a 40% for them. All the same, after a run of polls with them below 40% and with a single figure lead I expect it'll calm nerves a bit.

As with MORI and YouGov, there has been a rise in economic optimism. 37% expect the country's economy to do well over the next year (up 2), 58% expect it to do badly (down 4) - these are the most optimistic figures Populus have found since April 2008. On the subject of expenses, 46% of respondents thought that their local MP had abused the expenses system, up from 34% in April 2009. A third of voters said they vote against their MP if he was one required to repay money.