Populus - CON 33, LAB 38, LDEM 12, UKIP 9

The twice-weekly Populus poll is out and has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 9%. Compared to the previous Populus poll on Friday the Conservatives are four points higher, Labour two points lower and UKIP three points lower... though of course, the reality is there almost certainly hasn't mean any movement. Populus's online polling so far has on average shown the Conservatives on around 32%, Labour on around 39%, the Lib Dems around 12% and UKIP around 10%. Last Friday's poll was a bit of an outlier, and this is a reversion to the mean.

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Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

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According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

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Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

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What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management