Populus - CON 31, LAB 38, LD 13, UKIP 10

We haven't had a Populus poll so far this year since their contract with the Times ended. Today they re-enter the field, but using an online methodology. Topline figures are CON 31%, LAB 38%, LDEM 13%, UKIP 10%.

Obviously there are no changes since their previous poll given the shift in method - which Populus themselves explain here. It's worth reading in full if you're interested in polling methods, but to give a quick summary of the changes, parallel testing by Populus found that they couldn't produce comparable online results using past vote weighting, so they have moved from past vote weighting to party ID weighting (the approach currently used by YouGov). Populus have also dropped their reallocation of don't knows, the old spiral of silence adjustment, on the basis that interviewer effect shouldn't be a factor in online polls.

Full tabs are here.

UPDATE: We also have the monthly ICM poll for the Guardian due tonight (and MORI's monthly poll for the Evening Standard is also due sometime soon, possibly tomorrow). I'm out and about tonight and will update with details of ICM when I get home.

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