Polls tonight

There is an interesting response from Peter Kellner here about something that looks set to be in the Telegraph tomorrow. I'll have more to say about it later.

Tonight I'm expecting at least two new polls.

UPDATE: Almost as I hit submit, I found yet another poll - there are also new figures from TNS BMRB. Topline figures with changes from their previous poll are CON 38%(-1), LAB 33%(+2), LDEM 19%(nc). I think the fieldwork was between the 24th and 30th, so all post-budget. The other polls tonight are ICM and YouGov.

UPDATE 2: Corrected TNS BMRB's dates to match those they quote on their website.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management