Poll of West London marginals
ICM have released the figures for a poll they carried out for Greenpeace in 6 West London marginal seats (Battersea, Ealing Central & Acton, Ealing North, Brentford and Isleworth, Hammersmith and Feltham & Heston) about Heathrow expansion which also includes voting intention figures in those seats.
The topline figures in the poll, with changes from the notional figures at the last election (I'm using Rallings & Thrasher, since I'm assuming that's what ICM used when coming up with weightings), were CON 40%(+8), LAB 41%(-1), LDEM 13%(-8). This represents a swing of 4.5 points from Labour to the Conservatives. At the time the poll was taken, on the 16th and 17th December, ICM's national poll was showing a swing of 4 points to the Conservatives, so there is no significant difference between the swing here and nationwide, though the changes in the individual party shares of the vote are better for the Conservatives and Labour and worse for the Lib Dems than in national polls.
Asked about their attitude to a 3rd runway at Heathrow 34% of respondents said they were supportive, with 45% opposed. Those opposed also tended to be firmer in their opposition - the supporters were roughly half and half between strong supporters and "tend to support"; three-quarters of those opposed were strongly opposed.
Asked how it would affect their vote at the next general election if Labour went ahead with a third runway, 10% said it would make them more likely to vote Labour, 23% said it would make them less likely to vote Labour. As regular readers will know, not least because I bang on about it whenever anyone asks such a question, I am highly sceptical about questions asked this way. Of the people who say a decision to build a third runway would make them more likely to vote Labour, the overwhelming majority are people who say they would vote Labour already. Of the people who say it would make them less likely to vote Labour, the large majority say they would vote Conservative or Lib Dem tomorrow anyway. Too many people in questions like this are committed voters who are just using it to send a message, not people whose vote is actually up for grabs.
