PoliticsHome marginals poll

The Guardian is reporting an updated version of PoliticsHome's huge poll of marginal seats. As they did last year, PoliticsHome polled around 34,000 people in 238 marginal seats, divided into 17 groups of similar seats to make a projection of how people would vote in a general election now.

Last year it projected a Conservative majority of 146 at a time when the national polls were showing a Conservative lead of 20 points or so. This year, with the Conservative lead in the national polls down to the mid-teens, they are also doing worse in the marginals. The updated poll suggests a Conservative majority of 70. The Lib Dems are also doing significantly better. They are now projected to hold 55 seats, so down only 8.

There's plenty of fun stuff in the full report which should be up on the PoliticsHome website tomorrow at 7am. I'll write more then (or more probably a bit later than then. Like I get up at 7am!)