UK Polling Report (Page 58)

Six weeks to go

Here are this week's polls: Opinium/Observer (19/3) - CON 36%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% YouGov/S Times (20/2) - CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% Survation/MoS (21/3) - CON 30%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP

ICM post-debate poll

ICM did a rapid "who won" poll after the Paxman interviews with Cameron and Miliband tonight. Cameron won over Miliband by 54% to 46% - we won't know until the tables appear, but I expect that going to show Labour voters thinking Miliband won, Conservative voters

Panelbase - CON 34, LAB 34, LD 5, UKIP 15, GRN 6

Panelbase are well known for their Scottish polling, but today we have what I think is their first GB voting intention poll. Their first voting intention figures are CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%. Apart from the low Lib Dem score the figures are very much

Are UKIP and the Greens getting squeezed?

There have been several polls this week showing both the Conservatives and Labour up at 35%, and given it's a zero sum game that suggests the other parties are getting squeezed. There is a general expectation of this sort of squeeze as the election approaches - the nature

Latest YouGov and ComRes polls

There are two polls out tonight, both showing Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck on 35%. The first of ComRes's more frequent telephone polls for the Daily Mail, ramped up to a weekly timetable for the election campaign, has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM

Different pollsters methods - a summary

In this post back in January I wrote about the partisan effects of the different methodologies the different polling companies used, of how some companies tend to show consistently higher or lower scores for different parties. Since then I've been meaning to do a reference post explaining those

Monday polls

I think we have just the three regular polls this Monday - Populus, Ashcroft and YouGov. ComRes this afternoon announced that their voting intention polls for the Daily Mail will be weekly for the rest of the campaign, but the first of those won't be until later in

Seven Weeks to Go

Here are this week's polls: Opinium/Observer (12/3) - CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7% YouGov/S Times (13/3) - CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% ComRes/Indy on Sunday (13/3) - CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM

Populus - CON 31, LAB 34, LD 9, UKIP 17, GRN 5

The rest of the the YouGov budget polling is now up on their website here. It suggests a broadly positive reaction to the budget and a significant jump in Osborne's own ratings. Overall 42% think the budget was fair, 27% unfair. Most people think it will make little

YouGov/Sun - CON 35, LAB 33, LD 8, UKIP 13, GRN 6

Tonight's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%. YouGov's fieldwork normally runs from around 5pm or so until around 3pm the next day, so all of this poll was conducted after the budget. The

Latest Ashcroft, TNS and YouGov polling

Lord Ashcroft put out a new batch of constituency polls today, this time revisiting some Conservative -vs- Labour marginals that were very close the last time he polled them. The average swing across the seats polled is 4.4 from Con to Lab, the equivalent of a two point lead