Are UKIP and the Greens getting squeezed?
There have been several polls this week showing both the Conservatives and Labour up at 35%, and given it's a zero sum game that suggests the other parties are getting squeezed. There is a general expectation of this sort of squeeze as the election approaches - the nature of First Past the Post is that votes for smaller parties don't stand much chance of being translated into MPs unless they are geographically concentrated and as the election approaches the media coverage almost inevitably focuses ever more upon the main contenders (though more on that later).
The graph below shows the average poll scores for the Greens and UKIP across the nine regular pollsters (for those pollsters who do several polls a month, I've taken their average across the month).
UKIP have been on a slow but steady downwards trend since their support peaked after Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless's defections. This last month the decline may have flattened out a bit, but that is largely due to MORI having an unusually low score for them last month that jumped back up this month - without that the line would show a smoother downwards trend. The Green party's advance seems to have halted last month and started to fade a little this month.
Of course, just because they might be getting squeezed shouldn't distract from the fact that UKIP and the Greens are still doing incredibly well compared to the last election. In 2010 UKIP got 3%, the Greens 1% - both parties could suffer a bit more squeezing and still end up quadrupling the vote they got last time. For UKIP, there is also good news on the horizon, next week the campaign broadcasting restrictions kick in, guaranteeing them coverage as a major party. For most of the last few months UKIP's media coverage has largely consisted of the latest row or resignation for inappropriate comments. Next week the broadcasters will have to start giving them more neutral coverage alongside the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems.
In other news, we had the monthly Survation poll for the Daily Mirror out today. Their topline figures were CON 32%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 4% (tabs.
