With ComRes in the Independent showing the Tory lead symbolically dropping into single figures... but not actually collapsing that much, a second poll for BPIX in the Mail on Sunday shows no obvious signs of a Labour boost at all. The topline figures, with changes from the BPIX poll in
There is a new ComRes poll in the Sunday Independent which has headline figures - with changes from ComRes's previous poll in the Independent - of CON 40%(-1), LAB 31%(+2), LDEM 16% (-2). The poll was conducted on the 15th and 16th of October, prior to
The BBC's producer guidelines prevent them from commissioning voting intention polls without special permission. There is some merit in that, it itself, but it actually leaves us very ill-served by other political polls the BBC commission. When phone pollsters conduct voting intention polls the samples are weighted by
Weighting Weighting by Demographics As we've seen from the sampling article, no sampling technique is perfect: quasi-random sampling by definition has some random variation in it and even YouGov, who know the demographics of all the people they invite to a poll, can't be certain they
Sampling To understand polling we need to start with the sample. A common naive criticism of polls is that 1000 people cannot possibly represent the views of 60,000,000 people. George Gallup, the father of modern polling, used to reply to the point by saying that you don'
Current House of Commons Uniform Swing Projection* UKPR Projection mysql_connect("localhost", "ukpoll_ajwells", "haddock"); mysql_select_db ("ukpoll_pollresults"); $pollster = 'UKPR'; $avscores = mysql_query ("SELECT * FROM currentproj WHERE WHERE Pollster='$pollster'"); $conav = mysql_result ($avscores,
The Phi5000 figures on Friday suggested we might be about to see a jump in Labour's support through their handling of the current economic crisis and indeed we have. A new YouGov poll in the Sunday Times has topline voting intention figures, with changes from YouGov's
We don't yet have much actual polling evidence to show us what the effect of the economic crisis is upon public opinion. The expectation seems to be that it will aid Gordon Brown and there are some voices calling it Brown's Falklands moment (see the bottom
The Populus monthly poll for the Times, bumped by a day because of economic news, has topline figures with changes from their last poll, back at the tail end of August before the conference season, of CON 45%(+2) LAB 30%(+3) LDEM 15%(-3). A mixture of their conference
Sunday's News of the World carries a new ICM poll of 192 Labour held marginal constituencies where the Conservatives are in second place. The poll shows a swing of 11.5% in these seats, which according to ICM would equate to 164 Conservative gains and a majority of
There is a new YouGov poll in tomorrow's Telegraph, which shows a respectable boost for the Conservatives following their conference. Topline voting intentions, with changes from the poll taken after the Labour conference, of CON 45%(+4), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 15%(-1). It shows a reasonable boost
Since the YouGov poll I thought might have surfaced yesterday didn't, the first post-Conservative conference poll is in fact from from ICM in the Guardian, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday (presumably the fieldwork began after Cameron's speech, though the Guardian are not specific about it). The
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