Very soon I am going to launch a weighted average of the polls, the UKPR polling average. I've thought long and hard about this because generally speaking I don't like polling averages. There is no statistical justification for a polling average - the different companies do
I've been busy for the last couple of days, so here's a catch up of various poll findings from the last couple of days. Firstly since it's Prince Charles's 60th birthday, a YouGov poll in the Telegraph showed a majority of people
mysql_connect("localhost", "ukpoll_ajwells", "haddock"); mysql_select_db ("ukpoll_pollresults"); $avscores = mysql_query ("SELECT * FROM currentproj"); $normproj[1]= mysql_result ($avscores, 5, "Conseat"); $normproj[2]= mysql_result ($avscores, 5, "Labseat"); $normproj[3]= mysql_result ($avscores,
Populus's monthly poll in the Times is out and has voting intention figures - with changes from their last poll - of CON 41%(-4), LAB 35%(+5), LDEM 16%(+1). The poll was conducted between the 7th and 9th November, so is the first to be carried
ICM have a new poll out in the Sunday Telegraph. The topline figures, with changes from the previous ICM poll, are CON 43%(+1), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 18%(-3). The poll shows no significant change in Labour and Conservative support from the previous ICM poll, conducted a fortnight or
FAQ: Likelihood to Vote Turnout at the last few elections has been only around 60% - so 4 out of 10 people, whatever they told pollsters, didn't actually bother to vote (theoretically at least, actually the real percentage of people able to vote who do is higher than
A question that occasionally comes up in the comments here is how exactly you calculate a swing in an election. It obviously needs answering since the BBC managed not only to get it wrong on their coverage last night, but still had it wrong on the Today Programme this morning
No UK polls today (I believe Populus's monthly poll is going to be next month) the focus is naturally on the USA. We know what the polls say - Obama will win, and probably win big. As ever, do be wary about the inevitable leaks of exit poll
Over at Comment Central Danny's sidekick Alice picks up the interesting fact that there is a signficant difference in US polls that include cellphones and those that do not - if the sample includes cellphones Barack Obama has a 4 point bigger lead. Alice's conclusion is
The Scottish Daily Express claims to have a poll on the Glenrothes by-election. They quote figures of Labour on 26.5% and the SNP on 23%, with the Conservatives on 4% and the Lib Dems on 2%. There is no sign of who conducted it, the only clue is that
There is a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday with voting intentions (with changes from their previous poll a fortnight ago) of CON 45%(-1), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 13%(nc). Again there is no significant change, despite the return to normal politics and the Osborne funding affair. However,
I haven't followed the polls in the US presidential race in any detail - there are dozens of polls every day and I could never hope to do half as good as job as Mark Blumenthal over at Pollster.com, with just a couple of days to go
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