There are unlikely to be any polls out tonight, so in response to public demand (and organised by Al J), here's a thread for your general election predictions. Please try and keep this thread for general election predictions, rather than wander off onto other subjects.
As well as the ICM and YouGov polls I reported last night, there is also a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday. The topline figures with changes from January are CON 36%(-3), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 18%(nc). The poll was of 5655 people, so large enough to
According to the Press Association, YouGov's daily poll for the Sunday Times meanwhile has topline figures of CON 38%(nc), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 17%(nc). Once again, there is no significant change and no sign of the Conservative recovery that ICM picked up. Other than the 2
There is a new ICM poll in tomorrow's News of the World. ICM's previous poll was in mid February, just as the polls started to really narrow, and showed the Conservatives down to 37% and their lead down to 7 points, the lowest they had recorded
TNS BMRB have released a new poll, topline figures with changes from a week ago are CON 39%(+3), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 19%(-2). Fieldwork finished on Wednesday so is more up to date than poll earlier in the week. Since then I have some more details about the
YouGov have been dominating the polling in the pre-election period since the daily polling began, especially since the other companies still seem to be on their "peacetime footing". At some point many of them will also step up the frequency of their polling as we get closer to
ITV Wales have a new YouGov poll with Welsh voting intentions. Topline voting intention figures, with changes from January, are CON 29%(-3), LAB 37%(+2), LDEM 12%(-1), PC 14%(+1). This represents a swing of 6.6 since the last election, so while the Conservative position has narrowed
YouGov's daily voting intention figures are CON 38%(nc), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 17%(-2). Once again the 6 point lead continues to be pretty steady, certainly the Lord Ashcroft affair does not seem to be having any great effect.
Channel 4 has a new poll of marginal seats for Channel 4 which once again suggests a slightly higher swing to the Tories in Lab/Con marginals. YouGov has polled this same group of marginal seats four times for Channel 4 over the last two years (for my posts on
The Daily YouGov poll is out and has topline figures of CON 38%(nc), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 19%(+3). The Conservative lead remains about the six point mark where it's been for a fortnight other than the blip at the weekend. The Lib Dems are up from
The Evening Standard has London voting intention figures based on the aggregated data from the YouGov daily polling over the last week or so (I should add that the raw data is aggregated as if it were all one poll, and then collectively weighted to London targets - so it
Tonight's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 38%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 16%(-1). None of the changes are significant, and I suspect the real picture is that we've been a lead of 6 points or so for the last week
Sign up to receive occasional updates from UK Polling Report.