Opinium's final poll: CON 43%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 5%
Opinium have put out their final poll of the election campaign. Their final figures are CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-1), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was between Sunday and today, so it is also the first poll we've seen with fieldwork conducted after the terrorist attack in London Bridge, though there's no significant change from Opinium's previous poll at the weekend. Full details are here.
This is the first poll to be badged as a final poll. Survation put out their final poll for Good Morning Britain this morning (showing topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 40%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 3% - tabs here) but final poll for GMB is not necessarily the same as final poll. We shall, no doubt, have a flurry of final polls from ICM, ComRes, YouGov, Panelbase, Kantar and others tomorrow, MORI on Thursday.
I mentioned yesterday that Ipsos MORI normally do their final poll on polling day itself, and got a few comments about whether this is allowed. Yes - it is. The rules on election day is that you cannot publish an exit poll (or any poll that's based on the opinions of people who have already voted) while polls are still open. It's perfectly fine to publish polls conducted before polls opened. MORI do their fieldwork on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday like everyone else's final poll... they publish on Thursday because they partner with the Evening Standard who publish around midday, rather than overnight.