Opinium/Observer - CON 29, LAB 39, LD 8, UKIP 14

The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer is out and has topline figures of CON 29%(+1), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 14%(nc). The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, and obviously shows no real change from a fortnight ago.

Still to come tonight we apparently have another poll of Eastleigh, I believe by Survation (at least, I know they were doing fieldwork for an Eastleigh poll earlier this week). Tim Montgomerie has tweeted that there is an Eastleigh poll out tonight showing the Lib Dems a couple of points ahead of the Conservatives, so we'll have to wait and see if that's correct.

UPDATE: The Survation Eastleigh poll is now up on their website here. Their published voting intention figures for Eastleigh are CON 33%, LAB 13%, LDEM 36%, UKIP 16%, Others 2%. As with Lord Ashcroft's poll earlier in the week, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are fighting it out for the top spot, their scores within each other's margin of error, though Survation have Labour behind UKIP in fourth place. The poll was conducted between Wednesday and Friday

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management