Opinium/Observer - CON 29, LAB 35, LD 8, UKIP 17

The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer has topline figures of CON 29%(+1), LAB 35%(-3), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 17(+1). I am always extremely cautious about reading movements into polls - more often than not they turn out to be no more than the result of random movement within the normal margin of error - however we do seem to be seeing a consistent trend. YouGov's dailing polling for the Sun which normally shows Labour leads of around 10 points has produced

leads of 7, 8, 11 and 7 this week, Ipsos MORI showed Labour's lead dropping by four points, ICM by two points and now Opinium by four points.

Just as I'd advise caution in deciding whether or not there is a change in the polls, one should be equally cautious in assuming what the cause might be. Don't just leap at the most apparent story in the news! Clearly one obvious explanation would be the coverage of the Thatcher funeral, but it doesn't follow that this is automatically the cause (if it is, of course, then I would expect any narrowing to be very short lived. A bit of positive TV coverage of a leader from long ago is probably not going to lead to any long term shift).

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