On budget bounces (or lack thereof)

As we look forward to what effect the budget has on the polls, here's an updated look at what they've done in the past. The graph below shows the government's lead in the two YouGov polls before and after each of the last ten budgets (for the most recent budgets, done in the era of daily polling, I've taken the average government lead in the two weeks before and after the budget).

As you can see, the idea of governments getting "budget bounces" hasn't really hold water in recent years. Most of the time budgets don't have much of an effect at all. The exceptions were Alistair Darling's budgets in 2008 and 2009 when his speeches brought home exactly how dire the economic situation was and had consequentially horrid effects on the government's poll position.

George Osborne's first budget in June last year appears to have produced a very short term boost for the government, but it was (a) only minor and (b) lasted all of a week.