Northern Ireland polling

Polls in northern Ireland are very rare creatures, not least because they have a rather poor record. There is a strong tendency for them to under-report the proportion of people voting for parties at the more hardline ends of the political spectrum, and over-report those in the centre.

I am not aware of any recent published polls, however, in the run up to the vote on the devolution of policing powers this week two polls were released, one commissioned by the Northern Ireland Office, the other by the Office of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister (OFMDFM). No figures for party support were officially released, but Mark Devenport the BBC's Northern Ireland political editor has them "unofficially".

These come with HUGE, TOWERING caveats. We don't know if they are true, we don't know if what the companies involved did to get them, and the record of polling in Northern Ireland really isn't great to begin with. For what it's worth though:

Red Circle/OFMDFM TUV 2% DUP 30% UCUNF 19% All 11% SDLP 19% SF 16% Others 4%

Northern Ireland Office TUV 1% DUP 26% UCUNF 16% All 8% SDLP 21% SF 17% Others 9%

I would not put too much trust in them. Sinn Fein look very low indeed, the Alliance very high. Jim Allister's Traditional Unionist Voice is almost completely absent despite managing 13% in the European elections. However, unless someone commissions a proper poll in Northern Ireland, it is all we have.

UPDATE: I haven't managed to track down the proper poll Ruairi mentions in the comments, but I have found another proper voting intention poll commissioned by the Belfast Telegraph. A face-to-face quota poll by Inform Communications, weighted by age, gender, community background and class (and it does at least have Sinn Fein ahead of the SDLP). NB - it's Assembly election voting intention, not Westminster.

Inform/Belfast Telegraph (5th-9th Feb) TUV 6% DUP 18% UCUNF 15% Alliance 7% SDLP 13% Sinn Fein 21% Others 6%